Russia-India-China Alliance More Likely

by Ranjit Dev Raj

The proposed 'triangle' first proposed by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov during a visit to India last December was then thought impractical by Indian leaders.

But the escalation of NATO's air offensive against Belgrade and China's stiff reaction to the accidental bombing of its embassy in the Yugoslav capital seem to have given the triangle idea a fresh chance.

On May 11, Chinese ambassador to India, Zhou Gang uncharacteristically told television interviewers here that it was time the two Asian giants got together on mutual security concerns and face up to the emerging NATO- dominated world.

Relations between the two countries, plagued by serious long- standing border disputes, hit a new low after India's Defense Minister said a year ago that China represented the biggest security threat to this country.

But earlier this month, China offered to settle border wrangles and revive an overland trade which came to a halt in the wake of a bloody 1962 border war.

"Russia fears Chinese expansionism into the 'yellow territories' of the former Soviet Union and Beijing seems to be encouraging a demographic push northwards," Vasudevan said.

Still, the three countries have the common ground of self- respect and recognition in a world that is increasingly dominated by the U.S.-NATO allies, he said.

On Tuesday, the Voice of Russia broadcast a commentary suggesting that New Delhi, Beijing and Moscow cooperate and avoid the possibility of more non-NATO countries meeting the same fate as Belgrade.

"Such an arrangement would help avoid the use of force, strengthen world security and reduce global tensions," the commentary said.

During his visit to Beijing last week, in preparation for a Sino-Russian summit, Russian leader Sergei Prikhodko was reported to have kept the triangle high on the agenda.

India is yet to make any formal move on the separate Russian and Chinese proposals bilaterally or otherwise but is believed to be taking the triangle idea seriously.

Meanwhile, foreign ministry officials in New Delhi have reacted strongly to NATO stonewalling attempts by China to condemn the alliance at the UN Security Council.

The officials said in India's strongest reaction yet to the Kosovo crisis that "NATO tendency to usurp the power and function of the UN Security Council was a source of concern to all countries big and small."

India they said was particularly concerned at the "new strategical concept of NATO that permits operations beyond the Euro-Atlantic region and outside the territory of the alliance."

But the three members of the proposed triangle are especially vulnerable because of serious ethnic conflicts within their large territories, such as within India's Kashmir and the northeastern states.

"NATO is now demonstrating the power to break up at will any country it may have on a hit agenda," says Prof. Madhavan Palat at the Jawaharlal Nehru University here, considered a think tank on international affairs.

Palat sees as ominous the fact that various secessionist groups are openly supported by western powers and allowed to maintain headquarters in places like Geneva, New York and London.

But Palat advises India and its foreign policy makers to steer clear of new strategic alliances with a Russia crippled by serious indebtedness to the World Bank.

The collapse of the Soviet Union, India's strategic ally, has completely changed the ground rules for the non-aligned countries, he said.

Vasudevan said the problem in the Balkans was owing to the failure of Russia to exercise control over the Serbs. "Russia is a sick man economically and politically and left with nothing but a veto in a sidelined Security Council."

Palat thought it nearly impossible to challenge the U.S. because of its stranglehold on international opinion through the media and its patent disregard for well-established international law.

India has bristled at U.S. technology sanctions first imposed after it exploded a nuclear device in 1974 and enhanced after a second round of tests last year may see advantage in the U.S. discomfiture at the inaccurate bombing of the Chinese embassy last week.

There are even signs that India may see an opportunity to renege on commitments made by the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty as demanded by the U.S. in return for lifting the sanctions.

"There is no proposal (to sign the Treaty)," home minister in India's caretaker government Lal Kishan Advani announced at a press conference on Tuesday countering opposition charges of a secret sellout to U.S. demands.

India is due to elect a new government only by October. The signing of the Treaty cannot happen before India elects a new government in October, because of a lack of consensus.